Global Dominance, Super Intelligence and the Path to Robotics

A summary of the ideas shared the last 2 years and what the future holds.

I’ll lay out a scenario for you:

China or the USA puts 20,000 robots in a warehouse and starts building fighter jets and bombers or ballistic missiles at 2000% the capacity a prior human worker was capable of.

Before i get into the thesis and thought process i would like to introduce myself. If you don’t want to know my background just skip the first paragraph sincerely no hard feelings: Many of you are friends or acquaintances from X and know all this but for those of you from Substack here:

My dad traded USD/JPY when I was kid for a fund and had set up some currency desks in the late 80’s so I was naturally intrigued. When i was 14 I became best friends with two kids from wealthy families. Went skiing with them in Colorado and all I could think on the chairlift that vacation was “how on earth can I afford to ski with Barry and David? I need to get into the stock market right now”. I bought 5 books on markets and started following charts and reading annual reports. I didn’t go to class in high school, my time was spent in the library following stocks.

Summer of 16 going into 17 years of age I got a job at a hedge fund analyzing reserves and resources of silver and gold mines for an Australian and New Zealand gentleman. Read about 125 annual reports that summer. Next summer I asked my dads friend Mayer Offman for an internship. First day at work he tells me “Ben we don’t do internships here you have to take your Series 7” and naturally being bad at exams my heart fell to the ground. I decided if I rewrote the book into 400 pages of my own words by pen I could pass so I did that and passed. The next summer I went to interview with a gentleman who was managing about $300 mil AUM day trading /ES. I interviewed with him for 6 hours on a bench in the financial district and he gave me a job watching over a /CL Algorithm. It was fully automated and both long short with scaling in. It was quite impressive I simply changed its input for massive trend changes and monitored it. I spent a majority of time watching my Boss trade up to 8,000 /ES contracts and studying how hedging worked. Was interesting to young me.

I got a traumatic brain injury at 21 in a skiing accident when I fell about 80 feet to the ground. I was diagnosed with Pseudobulbar Affect and lost control of my tear ducts, which I still have. I had to relearn how to study and hold information so decided to take the Series 3 for fun hence the love for hedging knowledge. At 28 I left to work at a currency firm and took my series 34. Went back to the /CL desk for 2 years and have been on my own for 7 years. I spend 18 hours a day at the desk watching and reading. I believe the more information we absorb the more informed we become, which leads to better decision making.

The brain injury has made life an extreme challenge for me but I am firm believer that giving up is not a choice. And we as humans must push our minds to the best of our ability. As Gabrielle Marcelle the French Philosopher said that it if we view life as mystery and not a problem we would be better off. And I truly live that perspective.

The Primary Thesis

I’m going to cover my thought process when picking a theme and stock. The entire thesis to buy the stock is not laid out rather the reason it pertains to my thesis and why it was initiated is what was written about. If the paragraph is rather short reasoning wise not much thought went into it. Some ideas require significantly more research and reasoning then others. Such is life.

I studied US history in high school, despite not taking the class seriously I did read the whole book in my room. After in college i studied Chinese and Russian history for two years so I tend to read a few hours every night about military contracts and geopolitics. When I form a thesis it’s essential that I choose a company that is excelling each opposing countries interests. The more essential the company is to the national interests of the country the more important it is in the thesis. And this is a theme you’ll see in every play I mention today.

The mistake many make is thinking this relates solely to the defense sector when it truly affects every single one.

The prevailing themes during this period have been military, materials, computational power and energy based. Each theme is essential to advancing the interest of each country.

Military to defend yourself and project power, computational power to advance intelligence, energy and materials to sustain it all.

Notice how I’m not mentioning the gaming sector like GME. Something like this has nothing to do with advancing society and it is not crucial to the national interest of a country. The idea is being invested in something that not only the country needs but without it the national security and economic plan won’t work.

Some Methods

When building a portfolio you can choose to be highly centric in nature and choose one of these sectors and not all 4 but that leaves several issues that pertain to opportunity costs. If I refrain from investing in the other 3 sectors because I perceive my sector will grow more, when I decide to diversify out of that sector whose growth may have topped out will the prices in the other 3 sectors be significantly higher then they are now which will make future diversification more difficult. Hence starting off diversified.

For example if you focused simply on defense last year and refrained from computational power now when you want to diversify out of defense your costs for the equities in the other sectors have now increased by 100%

But you will see this can change and ill discuss that later.

So when I build the portfolio I’m trying to target companies in each of these sectors that are seen as absolutely crucial. And If their services or supplies vanished from the chain there would simply be no replacement. Or if they did want to replace them it would cost double or triple the stocks values current market cap.

When creating the % allocation for each company it’s important that nothing is allocated a weighting that if something went terribly wrong at that specific company it would not derail the portfolio long term. Large allocations are a sign of too much certainty. I am not certain about anything. To think we are not at the helm of odds and to put ourselves in the certainty camp would be a mistake.

The Last 2 years: a breakdown of picks and the process and how it affects the current portfolios picks.

Everything is connected from computational power, robotics, energy, defense and materials. The more energy and materials you have, the more computational power you have, the smarter your AI may be, the more intelligence you can discover, the more advanced your healthcare, the faster and more powerful your robots and weapons are, which leads to greater economic, security and production achievements. The early phase of this is training AI models, building the energy for it and mining the materials. The market is moving on to the next stage of super computers, advanced medicine, inference and applying that all to robotics.

One of the main points of this article is to show that humans are not the sole target of AI via computational power. AI applied to robots who 100x production and advance us into a new age of economic prosperity is the base case. Space exploration in conjunction with robotics will use spare computing capacity humans do not utilize.

Thinking there will be spare computational power because the masses will be laid off their jobs may in fact never occur due to to robotics is a mistake. The wealth gap will grow exponentially but the economic machine will likely continue and adapt.

Defense Sector:

Projecting power is crucial to the thesis. It does not mean we have to necessarily engage in war but rather if that was required of us we would be able to do so efficiently and effectively. I chose the stocks in this sector which i believed could experience unique outlier growth in a short span of time.

You will notice I did not renter the trades. Ill explain: The issue with adding these back is these all revolve around war. It has become too burdensome for my mind. Each idea and its pertinence to the thesis is contemplated multiples times a day and I would rather not ponder war so often. You will see I have not bought back into many defense names for this specific reason.

RNMBF: Rheinmetall AG

entry: $740 exit: $1840

Tension between the EU and the USA began to emerge at the start of 2025. Over tariffs and Greenland. There was talk even before Trump became President of reducing NATO spending stemming from rhetoric and actions in his first term.

The thesis requires that the company chosen is crucial to the national security and economic plan of the region. RNMBF is the bed rock of European Defense. It is a massive contributor to the national security plan which in turn protects the economic plan.

There’s a war of survival taking place in Ukraine right next to Europe. Not supplying Ukraine with weapons is not a choice for the EU.

If the USA said they’re going to stop giving Ukraine weapons 1 month prior, and the Czech initiative to supply Ukraine with artillery shells was having trouble finding supply while North Korea was giving Russia 6 million shells a year wouldn’t you also assume Europe would change defense stances.

The possibility of RNMBF contracts increasing 500% exploded in a matter of weeks following the surface of tensions between USA and EU.

Entry was taken at $740 right at the start of tensions. Several weeks later Europe announced the Rearm Europe Plan worth over $1 trillion of which RNMBF is one of the largest beneficiaries

Exit was taken at $1840 several months later because the defense contracts they were awarded are highly capital and R&D intensive. At the time there were rumors of the USA wanting to pull out soldiers from Europe. Now if you look at the announcement from two weeks ago regarding the USA pulling out troops from Germany you’ll see its the 3rd division affected. The 3rd division is in charge of HIMARS, Tomahawks and the new Dark Eagle Hypersonic Ballistic Missile. Now Germany realizes they need those capabilities on their own. These programs are highly capital intensive and the EU would never allow the programs to have a high margin.

KTOS: Kratos Defense and Security Solutions

entry: $55 exit: $106

When a defense program is new but essential to national security plan of the country it will be awarded contracts to give their technology a chance. The CCA program which stands for Collaborative Combat Aircraft is essential for this role. It’s an integral part of Air domination. Hence the national security premium attributed to the valuation. It’s around 75% the size of a traditional fighter jet but with no pilots and run by AI. Think of an F-35 or F-22 pilot flanked by 15 of these with 4-8 missiles on each one. Changing everything in the air dominance field.

The CCA program had a new sense of urgency in 2025 as China began ramping up their prototypes and use. If China is ramping up their CCA program the Pentagon doesn’t have a choice. Kratos was the only plane in the CCA program getting contracts in early 2025. Additionally as AI advances so do CCA capabilities so the timing of the technology and our rivals spending made the timing opportune.

The hypersonic missile development program that they are involved in through rocket engine development won’t get as much a premium on their stock due to the US just finishing the Hypersonic Ballistic Missile “Dark Eagle” program with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. If the Hypersonic program just finished a product then the market will not put as much a premium on the Kratos program as there are alternatives for now.

This brings up a very important issue: If the company is seen as the sole supplier of a unique metal or technology they are assigned a market premium. And we will see this in multiple example such as ALM and USAR later.

This happened with KTOS with the CCA program but things changed later in 2025. The were 3 other companies joining the CCA program later in the year. Anduril, general dynamic and Boeing. And the Dark Eagle program being successful. It was only a 8 months window to make a quick 100%. That was the objective and target.

I understand why its attractive again at $55 but i need more clarity on the CCA program.

AVAV: AeroVironment Inc

entry: $220 exit: $400

Very catered around Ukraine at first as they are one of the only USA drone companies with a factory there but the long became enticing because the Pentagon needed 3-5 million FPV drones the next 5 years and didn’t make a large order yet.

We have all seen the videos out of Ukraine of drone warfare, to think the pentagon isn’t going to mass order drones would be naive.

The issue is you have to make it short term because the contract award is the main event and the actual contract which is low margin is not. Drones for defense companies can’t carry large margins or the Pentagon procurement program director would never agree to that there’s is an invisible boundary on what’s acceptable margin wise. In addition about 2 months prior to AVAV topping out at $400 Ukraine said they will lift many export licenses for Ukrainian drones. This takes away the AVAV premium of being one of the sole companies able to supply EU and USA with drones. Ukraine’s drones have much much lower margins and take away significant market share. If you do the math its quite simple. Ukraine can build a drone for around $1500-$2000 for a standard FPV they can sell that to another country for close to $6000 vs $3000 to their home country Ukraine. For every 1 you sell to another country you can actually in return make more for Ukraine.

This really influenced the exit at $404. Ukraine drone saturation wasn’t far off.

PLTR: Palantir Technologies Inc

entry: $68 exit: $119

2nd entry: $92 exit : $186

I put this in the military sector because that’s why i personally added it. It was a not a computational power play for the masses. It was a unique tool Governments and Militaries can use to advance intelligence. I realized at $68 i was late but not too late once i started to grasp the type of activity Palantir was engaged and its national security applications.

I became quite interested in SIGNIT -Signal Intelligence which is basically collating massive amounts of data from all sources and then analyzing this data.

If you think about how much SIGNIT is being absorbed by lets say the NSA or Pentagon and how crucial it is to analyze this data then the company who can analyze it would be valued at a significant premium. Which is why i never cared about the 900 P/E. It was simply too important for President Trumps goals in both geopolitical and military ambitions.

How it works:

1. Data Integration

   • Agencies feed in their existing SIGINT feeds (intercepted phone metadata, location pings from cell towers, or radio signals).

   • Gotham fuses this with thousands of other disparate sources in real time, without moving the data out of secure environments.

   • It uses an ontology (a customizable model of real-world objects like people, phones, locations, events, and the relationships between them). This creates a living graph where everything is linked.

2. Finding and Profiling People:

   • Analysts can start with a single SIGINT clue ( a phone number that appeared in an intercept) and instantly pull up everything linked to it: associated identities, addresses, travel history, social connections, financial ties, vehicle plates, etc.

   • It builds detailed profiles or “networks” in minutes. For example: “This phone (from SIGINT) called these numbers → those numbers link to known individuals → here’s their full network map, locations over time, and predicted movements.”

   • AI helps detect patterns humans would miss, like unusual call patterns indicating a cell of people, or linking a signal to a specific person via cross-referenced data passport records or license plates).

Then the added benefit for Corporations as well it was too important for me to ignore. I sold $186 because at the price the premium is way too overvalued for me. The capital was better used elsewhere.

They have pivoted into Agentic Agents and i have contemplated adding it back here at $160. SIGNIT significance has not deteriorated either.

XAR: Missile Defense and Aerospace ETF

entry: $200 exit: $284

I have a keen interest in Russia as i studied their history for 2 years in college hence i spend an hour every night reading about the War in Ukraine since 3 months before it began. The war there has used a significant amount of both the Pentagon and NATOs interceptor stock. Almost 95% of the Pentagons interceptor programs are in this ETF. Interceptors are used in missile defense systems such as the PATRIOT, THAAD, MANPAS, NASAMS.

Knowing Putin he will increase the Ballistic Missile usage as he has the option of buying from North Korea in the thousands when Ukraine does not have such a choice. The Ukrainians talk peace often but Putin has made intentions quite clear as well as Russia’s history. The interceptor arena was becoming more serious and i made a bold claim that XAR interceptor missile production would be increased by 500% when it was purchased. (that did in fact occur).

The reason i knew it would increase is simple. If Ukraine depleted supply by 60% and still need far more and we need our own supply in USA and a surplus of it then production needs to go up exponentially. In addition the Pentagon was using supply off the Yemen coast for a year adding to drain in stockpiles. Worries about tensions in the South China sea re Taiwan also requires a surplus.

The speculation was the US would go to war with Iran. If they wanted to do so they would need to replenish stockpiles and build a surplus. The increase in the programs did not materialize in XAR increasing price hence the exit.

ONDS: Ondas Inc

entry: $4 exit:$12

I did not think too much into this entry. The AVAV trade was on also and i knew the USA was about to announce they needed millions of drones.

I actually ended up liking it because at US bases around the world there have been drone incursions and ONDS has technology where one drone shoots another down with a net which is perfect for this purpose.

I exited the first time it hit $12 because even if they got a massive order they were still overvalued and Ukraine’s drones are combat proven and cheaper.

Metal/Rare Earth Sector

Rare earths and metals are essential in the supply chain for the thesis. They enable us to produce the weapons, robots, batteries and magnets in a large scale. China controls roughly 60-70% of global mining and over 85% of refining capacity. If we want to compete with them we need to support our rare earth industry. I was well aware prior to the US Government taking a stake that it was not an option the same way Quantum stakes were not. The weapons programs require an immense amount of rare earths which you can see in the USAR section. Rare earth metals sit at the very core of the materials theme and it is essential to the thesis.

ALM: Almonty Industries Inc

Entry: $8.90 exit: $22

Its a metal so its in the metal section but i really should be putting in the Defense Sector. In late 2025 i spent time reading about which metals China was restricting for warfare purposes. Was reading on a defense news page about and ammunition and Electronic Warfare radars for Drones made of Tungsten. Without Tungsten, many high-power EW transmitters would fail under the intense heat and power loads of continuous jamming operations. Every military in the world are making these EW radars to counteract drones. EW-Electronic Warfare involves using the electromagnetic spectrum to jam, spoof, or disrupt enemy radars, communications, sensors, and guidance systems.

In addition military orders for anti drone ammunition made with Tungsten pellets were about to come in. The technology was being made the last year and the orders were not made yet. Think an Apache Helicopters with 5000 rounds of Tungsten ammo or the new Rheinmetall Skyranger anti aircraft/drone going to Ukraine. Tungsten use cases were exploding. They can penetrate other metals with much greater efficiency then steel pellets.

ALM has a 100 year mine for Tungsten and supplies about 80% of supply outside of China. They are opening two more mines in the USA.

(RNMBF Skyranger)

Once i thought of its applications for Military Robotics and Space as well it was bought at $9. Exit was taken at $22 because the price of Tungsten had risen to unrealistic levels. ALM still had not opened their others mines out of South Korea and the chance of being diluted was quite high. The plan was to buy it back at $14. After exiting at $22 it did indeed drop right back to $14 a week later but i did not initaite a position again.

Drone warfare is expanding rapidly as are the orders for Tungsten ammunition. Russia and Ukraine war fare is expanding not retracting. China will not export the metal again it would be highly unlikely and counter their goals.

The space and robotic applications are quite important. Tungsten has the highest melting point has the highest melting point of all known elements, at 3,422 °C (6,192 . It also has the highest boiling at 5,930 °C. For spacecraft or a military grade robot soldier of the future Tungsten’s properties are well suited for them.

TUNGF play is alongside this one entry was $0.90 and exit was $2

USAR: USA Rare Earth Inc

1st entry: $12 exit: $36

2nd entry: $16 exit: $26

3rd entry: $16 . No exit still long

I read about China a decent amount and their military and geopolitical ambitions. And what they can do to stem the USA from gaining a larger share of global dominance. Rare Earth metals are crucial to this. I got worried in early 2025 because President Trumps ambitions to onshore the supply chain to the USA and build up the military would require substantial rare earths. Why would China keep selling it to us in masse if we were semi decoupling economically and expanding our military with the metals? They likely would not export the amount they were prior. USAR has different magnets then MP the other rare earth metal stock which i follow closely as well. The assumption the US Government would take a stake influenced all the entries. It was more a when then if type situation given what the materials are used for.

Below is a table of which magnets are needed for military purposes and whether USAR will produce them. Their mines contain most of the magnets. The issue is the mine is not operational yet. Which is why the exit was taken twice. There was clear dilution ahead.

If the Presidents wants to do a $1.5 trillion defense budget it will require a tremendous amount of these metals.

BHP: BHP Group Ltd

entry: $58 exit: $81

I needed a copper play for the grid buildout, AI data centers and renewables. Transformers are very heavily comprised of copper. The GPU rack made by Nvidia is copper intensive. I did not want to FCX over rights issues in their mines.

SLV: Silver ETF

entry: $36 Exit: $89

Ill be honest i really did not think about this trade too much, I saw the hype around data centers silver usage and bought. I sold at $89 after it was rejected at highs due to the publics anger regarding data centers and their electricity usage. Going back to $60 seemed inevitable and we did go back there.

If Silver allows for more efficient data centers and advances intelligence its part of the thesis.

GLD: Gold ETF

entry: $278 exit: $464

I was worried about the Geopolitical situation when it was purchased. There was a lot of talk about the demise of the Dollar and Central Banks hoarding the metal at the time of purchase. The main thesis was the issues between USA with China and Europe. If the dollar would suffer the Euro and Yuan are not exactly these pillars of stability. What other asset can handle currency type flows as hedge against the dollars demise, not SPX puts, Gold. China has serious demographic issues along with a decade of real estate issues. The shadow banking system is massive with its true size cloaked under secrecy. Europe had to fund their defense sector and has major immigration issues dragging the fiscal budget. Along with their economic red tape. All in all a rally seemed inevitable.

When /GC came back to $5200 on the way down around the start of Iran war i was worried that funds were so long Equity and Calls that if those declined they would be inclined to sell their enormous /GC Futures gains. We fell $1000 on gold futures shortly after selling. There was another major issue for me and that pertains to the future and the cost of spending money on GC reserves vs using those funds to create energy which is in short supply now.

Another 100% upside in GLD would take a tremendous effort where as a trade such as computational power to move that much would be quite easy. And that is where the capital was allocated as ill discuss later in computational power basket. It was put into AMD and INTC near yearly lows.

This was part of a basket i put together called “The Accidental War Fund” that if war broke out i would survive the drawdown. This was the main hedge as it was perceived to be a good war hedge. In reality it was terrible for the war itself but the run up to the war was the trade for me.

AA: Alcoa Corporation

Entry: $79 exit: still long

This was just imitated recently

the 4 different kinds of Aluminum AA has:(written by Grok)

1. 2xxx (copper-alloyed, e.g., AA2024): High strength and damage tolerance.

2. 6xxx (magnesium + silicon, e.g., AA6061): Good corrosion resistance and weldability.

3. 7xxx (zinc-alloyed, e.g., AA7075): Highest strength for high-stress parts.

4. Al-Li alloys (e.g., AA2195): Even lighter with added lithium for advanced cryogenic use.

Its well suited for robotics and space exploration. Nasa Curiosity rover uses space grade aluminum. Robotics arms used in space utilize it as well their lightweight corrosion resistance frames.

I initiated the position because i believe humanoid robots will utilize aluminum.

Computational Power

Computational power is the backbone of the intelligence behind the thesis. It affects all realms of the economic and global dominance thesis as it can drastically improve each sectors performance. A smarter AI can make smarter robots, missiles, medicine, and technology. The application for its uses are essentially infinite.

MU: Micron Technology Inc

entry: $367 exit: $600

Entry $640 exit: $740

Entry: $739 exit: still long

I have know about Micron for a while. My boss on the /CL desk would not buy me a trading computer that supported multiple screens so i bought all the parts and built my own. In terms of RAM id always choose the max amount possible to make the PC future proof. I was reading on X about the upcoming Q1 EPS estimates around $12. To give you an idea all of last years earnings: Q1: $1.56, Q2: $1.91, Q3: $4.04, Q4: $4.78. So total 2025 EPS: $12.65 and they almost made that in Q1.

I called my friends from high school and told them to do the same thing i told them to do with Nvidia at $8 “make it your biggest position”. I had several reasons. I am very into Quantum Computing and with QPU the computer would need significantly more RAM. The next gen AI CPU chips will need 300% more RAM. Autonomous cars need 300gb and same with an advanced humanoid robot.

At $700 we found out the new Nvidia VERA chip which they sold $21 billions worth at $3,000-$5,000 a piece needs over 1TB of RAM. These numbers are hard to fathom.

If memory accelerates intelligence its crucial to the thesis. To envision a time when millions of advanced humanoid robots and autonomous cars need mass amounts of RAM is not too hard. Including demand from data centers and computers its difficult to see a slow down soon.

INTC: Intel Corp

entry: $44 exit $118

entry $108 exit: still long

I built my last computer with an i9-9900k processor after using AMD prior and it is quite impressive. Intel was meant to be added lower but i did not want to chase. Being into geopolitics and war strategy i like how they built a fab in the USA before everyone else did. The US Government stake solidified my conviction.

CPU’s demand will not decrease going forward. Its essential to have for the thesis.

AMD: Advanced Micro Devices Inc

entry: $198 $ exit: $440

I have always been fond of Advanced Micro Devices. When it was $5 i asked my neighbor if i could a portfolio for him. He put $10,000 in the account and I put $5,000 of it into AMD.

I became aware of what Inference was when Advanced Micro Devices was around $125. Inference is applying the AI models training to real word usage.

After the war with Iran started i saw an opportunity to get the stock before the true Inference thesis was priced in. As its a much larger market then simple training for their chips. I thought I would be able to get back in cheaper which never panned out.

GOOGL: Alphabet Inc

entry:$198 exit: $390

Entry: $380 exit: still long

I see google as more of a Berkshire Hathaway type investment. They have so many investments in different sectors it is quite staggering. They hold a 6.11% stake in SpaceX and a 14% stake in Anthropic amongst thousands of other investments.

Their debt issuances are a bit intense but YouTube revenue can pay that off.

AAPL: Apple Inc

entry: $266 exit: still in

I see them as a data center buildout slowdown hedge where agents and models run on a Mac operating system. No other reason im in it.

AVGO: Broadcom Inc

entry: $298 exit: $400

I got in for the Google TPU buildout and got out because i don’t believe 60% margins are sustainable.

DELL: Dell Technologies Inc

entry: $166 exit : $244

Seemed rather cheap when they are heavily used in data centers in the stack.

The Quantum thesis:

Here is the real part many missed. If China was able to get their Quantum Computers built what would be implications for global dominance and can the USA afford to lose this race. Markets are rather optimistic and will give a leading technology a chance. Even with the dilution the positions excelled. 3 weeks ago i noticed unusual options activity in predicted this was finally the point where US Government would be forced to take a stake. If China gave their quantum companies over $25 billion then we have no choice either. The Quantum Processing unit is being worked on in both countries which would work in junction with the GPU,CPU and Memory to form a Super Computer.

After i saw RGTI go from $1.25 to $9 i got quite interested and wanted to learn more about what Quantum Computing was capable of and if the technology was viable.

A regular computer only understands results in “Bits” which understands data in a state of 0 or 1, A Quantum Computer understand results in “Qubits” which understands data can be in a state of both 0 and 1. It watches how data between the two points interact and comes up with faster and more unique results.

So the regular computer has to run the odds at both 0 or 1 every time, while a quantum computer is doing both at the same time. Now think about the applications one can apply to military technology for this. You radar can now lock onto significantly more targets such as incoming ballistic missiles. If you’d like to explore deep into space on manned missions the amount of compute power needed is enormous. Quantum computing in the space sector has many application as seen below. (military applications discussed below in INFQ)

RGTI: Rigetti Computing Inc

Entry: 1.34 exit: $19

Entry: $9 exit: $52

Entry: $16 exit $19

Entry: $16 exit: 26

My friend called me when RGTI was around $1.25 and told me their technology is worth a look. Now before i looked up what quantum truly was, I saw the options activity that week and it was a clear Gamma Event signal. The notional value of the options bought exceeded the current market cap of the company. The issue is the technology will take time to advance. The extreme dilution we were subject to makes taking profit quite enticing when we can with some sense assume (tough decision) that price will come back to the cycle low. For me this was mainly due to lack of Government funding and the significant doubt many cast on the sector. I don’t doubt but i know that can affect price.

INFQ: Infineon Technologies AG

entry: $12 exit: still long

I heard about Infleqtion after they went to $21 following the Nvidia partnership. Infleqtion’s Sqale quantum processing unit (QPU) integrates with Nvidia GPUs. Now the interesting part i found while researching with AI is the GPU solves the quantum error correction we see in quantum computing.

Written by Grok in a way i would have trouble explaining: The Nvidia GPU doesn’t fix quantum errors itself, it runs the lightning fast classical AI that decodes syndromes, calibrates the system, and closes the real-time control loop so fault tolerance actually works. Without GPU acceleration, real-time QEC at scale would be impossible. This is why Infleqtion (and many other quantum companies) are deeply partnered with Nvidia — it’s the bridge from noisy quantum hardware to useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers.

back to written by me: In addition the partnership with Lockheed Martin was of interest to me. I knew what a qubit was capable for military radars and sensors but did not know they were actually working on this. In addition the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) had awarded Infleqtion a contract under the SHIELD IDIQ vehicle for broad work areas supporting missile defense.

Infleqtion is part of the Iron Shield program to protect USA from missiles using satellites. For the same technology Lockheed Martin is working with them on.

I was well aware the other Quantum stocks like QBTS and IONQ could rally but i wasn’t interested. I did suggest QBTS to a family friend though who made $250,000 on it. I was happy for him

Robotics

Humans are not the sole base case for AI, robots are as well. Any spare capacity of computational power in the future will likely be used on robotics and space exploration. Robots who are not processing data at the source will need a data center. Once the robots are trained with the computational power and intelligence their uses are endless.

They can increase production of almost everything to levels we as humans would have a difficult time achieving. They do not need to be paid, and they don’t need healthcare. Maybe when AGI comes they will need therapy (That is a joke i know its funny).

The military implications are enormous. They will be able to conduct warfare and build weapons at skill levels that a human can not attain.

Every company part of the robotics revolution is heavily enshrined in the thesis of global domination and economic prosperity. Personal robots, housecleaners, security and military. All these robots are coming.

ROBO: Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF

entry: $52 exit: $76

Entry: $69 exit: still long

I always loved the movie Bicentennial Man with Robin Williams. Its not tooo hard to envision each of us having a personal robot as the character have in the film. I was worried id be too late to robotics so late 2024 i got very into ROBO which is an ETF.

The way ROBO is structured is very fascinating and quite different then other ETFs in this space. They are allocated to about 80 ideas but do almost equal weighting for the top 50. This is important because the real winner in robotics is not evident yet. I wanted broad exposure to the entire supply chain of the robot. UBTRF is in there and they are making robot soldiers for the Chinese Military for example, LIDAR, geospatial mapping. You name its in there.

The way the military will adopt advanced robotics will give this ETF a premium in the future. The defense industry will see that many of these companies will fall under their scope. AI and supercomputer train the models and power them and then besides commercial and household robots we apply it to Military robot soldiers.

ROBO breakdown below

BB: BlackBerry Limited

Entry: $6 exit: still long

I had a Blackberry in college and really enjoyed it. I saw the name several months ago around $5.80 a few weeks ago and was very curious. I noticed weird options flow on this name at $6. It wasn’t large but i remember thinking “they might reprice this given what QNX does in automation and robotics”. It’s software for mission critical machines. Which is a very important theme in defense, automation and robotics.

People forget Blackberry is in 275 million cars on the road at the moment. The vehicle networking and infotainment center is controlled by their QNX software.

OUST, AMBA, IFNNY, NOVT and RRX make specific parts and software for Robots. With Blackberry QNX software as the gatekeeper. The robots brain may say “walk to the box”. QNX software turn that thought into 1,000 actions needed to do that.

The way it works in a robot: I gave ChatGPT this information and asked it to make a nice flow chart for you all how it works.

The QNX software also works in drones. In order for the target mechanism, geospatial mapping, steering and camera to all work together QNX software is crucial. It will handle cybersecurity for robot fleets as well and we can possibly see more of those contracts in 2027.

They run a secure communication network for Governments. It is end to end encrypted software for voice, messaging, file sharing and crisis response.

Their communication software described below: made with Grok

In terms of physical AI I did want some software exposure. Which is why contemplated adding Palantir back. In Q1 2026 Blackberries QNX segment had a 84% adjusted gross margin with a $950 million backlog. Those are impressive numbers. Their secure communications network had a 73% operating margin with $218 million in annual recurring revenue.

OUST: Ouster Inc.

entry: $33 exit: still long

Ouster builds high-performance LiDAR sensors. LiDAR is essentially the robot equivalent of human depth perception. It stands for: Light Detection and Ranging. Instead of taking pictures and analyzing the image it will send out million of lasers to paint a map of the environment. Depending on how long each laser takes to return to origin it can decipher several things. Is that object moving? how far away is it? is that a person? can i maneuver there? Ouster does this all.

LiDAR is used in autonomous cars, robots, security systems, and drones.

In terms of defense Ouster technology is being used in autonomous military vehicles, border protection, drone navigation, and mapping out combat zones.

Its fits into the thesis quite well.

AMBA: Ambarella Inc.

entry: $80 exit: still long

There is a new term i heard recently “Edge AI technology”, where you run the artificial intelligence on the device itself instead of in the cloud. It is quite useful for robotics for faster processing time for decisions. For a vision heavy applications Ambarella chips are crucial. Companies are also saving money on data centers if you’re not sending 1,000,000+ future robots calculations to the cloud.

A robot needs to see people, identify objects, estimate distance, navigate rooms, avoid obstacles, track hands, read label and understand environments. Ambarella builds the AI chips that do this. They are used in Amazons warehouse robotics to avoid obstacles, map the warehouse and recognize pallets. Their vision processors are used in Drones to track targets, map terrain, navigate, and collision avoidance.

Ambarella designs low power system-on-chip (SoC) semiconductors that combi high-resolution video compression, image signal processing, radar/lidar processing AI network accelerators.

These semiconductors turn ordinary cameras and sensors into “smart” devices that can detect objects, recognize faces, track people/vehicles, analyze scenes, and make decisions, all “on the edge”.

RRX: Regal Rexnord Corporation

Entry $208 exit: still long

Regal Rexnord Corporation makes motion control systems for robots and automation. So they control the torque and rpm of the robots arms, legs and torso movements .

1. Servo motors: high torque compact electric motors that rotate robots joins

2. Drivers and controllers: tell the electronics how fast, where, and when to move. They handle the coordination across multiple robot axis.

3. Linear motion systems: used in automation to allow robot arms on the assembly line to complete more tasks without the need for additional arms.

4. Gearheads: gearboxes attached to the robots motor

5. Couplings: the connection between the robots parts

The parts RRX are making are quite important for the thesis.

IFNNY: Infineon Technologies AG

entry: $81 exit: still long

Infineon Technologies is a semiconductor company. They make power chips, motor control chips, radar chips, and safety chips. All of these chips convert electricity into controlled motion.

Every robot has a motor and each motor needs:

1. Inverters

2. Controllers

3. Power Management

Infineon supplies all three of these components. Which it does the same for autonomous vehicles via radars and EV power systems.

In the defense sector it has many applications. Radar electronics, satellite systems, secure processors, and electronic warfare hardware.

It is essential to the thesis.

NOVT: Novanta Inc.

entry: $143 exit: still long

Novanta specializes in the robotics precise motion. They do this though photonics, motion control and robot components. They make servo drives and controllers like RRX does. The robot EOAT- “End of Arm Tooling” give the robotic arm the ability to change which is ideal for factories and warehouses. They specialize in lasers for steering and and scanning which can be integreated into robotics systems.

The need for precise machinery is important for surgical robotic systems. Novanta has a division for this.

In the defense realm its used in optical, targeting and laser systems. Not many are doing the same work Novanta is doing and it is crucial to thesis.

TER: Teradyne Inc.

entry: $354 exit: still long

I was very late to this stock. I knew about it in late 2024 because of ROBO but i was too focused on the defense sector. My mistake was not doing my research because Teradyne has a dedicated Defense and Aerospace business. They supply automated test systems to test aircraft, weapons systems and ground equipment It is a “Mission Critical” component. Without it many systems would have difficulty being tested. When soldiers lives are at risk that’s not an option.

They run another division called Teradyne Robotics. They run AI powered robot platforms via 2 divisions:

1. Universal Robots (UR): these are collaborative robots with easy to program arms that allow human collaboration.

2. Mobile Industrial Robots (MiR)- autonomous mobile robots for handling materials and logistics. These robots can weld, assemble and package items.

Defense and robotics applications were pertinent to the thesis.

ROK: Rockwell Automation, Inc.

entry: $284 exit: $350

2nd entry: $452 exit: still long

Rockwell Automation is the brain behind an automated factories machines all working in sync. If you’d like to connect 2,000 robots to 50 conveyors with 300 sensors you use Rockwell software to do this.

They make motion and robot controllers, factory networks and industrial software. Very heavily used in the defense sector in missile and aircraft factories, shipyard and ammunition plants.

Quite important to the thesis.

COHR: Coherent Corp

entry: $350 exit: still long

Coherent is the industrial robotics play. They make laser based processing systems that integrate into robots. These systems combine lasers with multi axis robots, machine vision, and software for thing like welding.

They also make laser and optics for precision manufacturing.

Coherent has a partnership with Nvidia to advance optics technologies for next generation AI infrastructure . Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in Coherent.

SYM: Symbotic Inc.

entry: $29 exit: $64

Honestly not much thought went into this i heard automation and partnership with Walmart and i was in. I got out at $64 because i was worried Walmart made up too large a portion of revenue.

Space:

I believe China is working on arming satellites with lasers. We can not take the risk of falling behind in this space.

SpaceX:

I am firm believer that space capabilities and exploration are the next frontier. I trust Elon Musk’s vision its that simple.

Energy

Without energy none of the thesis can work. It is the foundation. Compute power and the consumer are both demanding massive amounts of energy from the grid. The thesis requires the country to invest in every source that may dominate the energy field. From Natural gas to Nuclear.

CAT: Caterpillar Inc

entry: $520 exit: $900

This play was catered around the sheer demand for materials needed at the moment. But once i did more research into what Caterpillar actually makes money off of i stayed in for a longer duration. I was under the assumption they simply made bulldozers and excavators. But in 2025 the “power generation” sector made $27 billion while earth moving equipment made $26 billion.

The AI boom touches almost every Caterpillar segment:

Data Centers: Generators & power systems

Electricity Demand: Power generation equipment

Copper Demand: Mining equipment

New Power Plants: Construction equipment

LNG Infrastructure: Oil & gas equipment

Grid Expansion: Generators and engines

Warehouses: Construction equipment

Factory Automation: Industrial engines & power systems

The service and part sector made $24 billion. All the current equipment being sold will require immense services and part going forward as well. I sold due to the data center buildout slowdown. In hindsight that was a mistake.

TSLA: Tesla Inc

entry: $278 exit: $390

2nd entry: $350 exit: still long

I’ve always been fond of Elon Musk and find his ambitions and drive to be inspiring. I honestly didn’t purchase it for the cars but the coming semi truck, Optimus robot and Cybercab. Their battery storage systems for home, commercial and industrial uses is expanding at a significant rate. Not holding Tesla wasn’t an option for me.

People tend to complain the valuation is too high but if you wanted to replace Tesla i suspect it would cost twice the market caps value.

FCEL: FuelCell Energy Inc

entry: $21 exit: still long

Bloom energies competitor. They have ramped up production of fuel cells from 41mw to 100mw last Q4. this coming quarter they released new products for data centers.

Small allocation to give them a chance in this unique field where fuel cells provide on site energy for data centers.

KMI: Kinder Morgan Inc

entry: $25 exit: $33

A strong natural gas supplier and producer. Kinder came back on my radar after i missed the $21 entry. I saw natural gas going higher as Europe was relying on us more for LNG now after severing some Russian gas. Data center and consumer electricity usage increasing. Winter gets cold in the USA and many homes are heated with natural gas.

It does not trade well though and the dividend is too small for the gains the equity is offering.

CEG: Constellation Energy Corp

entry: $190 exit :$290

VST: Vistra Corporation

entry: $92 exit: $170

I entred Constellation and Vistra around the same time. We were desperate for energy for data centers and consumers seemed logical. I sold when tariff trouble arose

The Small Modular Nuclear Reactor Basket

I am firm believer in giving new technology a chance with smaller allocations. I skipped Oklo but the other four companies in the sector

NNE: NANO Nuclear Energy Inc

Entry: $27 exit: still long

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc is an advanced nuclear technology company focused on microreactors and related infrastructure. It is developing several modular designs including the KRONOS MMR a high-temperature gas-cooled stationary reactor, ZEUS, a solid-core battery reactor, and LOKI MMR, a portable/space capable microreactor for remote, industrial, data center, and space applications.

IMSR: Terrestrial Energy Inc

Entry: $8.50 exit: still long

Terrestrial Energy Inc develops Generation IV nuclear technology, specifically the Integral Molten Salt Reactor (IMSR) small modular plant for high-temperature heat and electricity.

U.S. DOE Loan Programs Office evaluating up to $890M for first U.S. IMSR plant.

XE: X-Energy Inc

Entry: $27 exit: still long

X-Energy Inc develops and commercializes advanced small SMRs and nuclear fuel technology. U.S. Department of Energy awarded them a $1.2 billion Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program award.

Major backing by Amazon with 24% post IPO ownership and 5GW of commitnments

SMR: NuScale Power Corporation

entry: $12 exit: still long

It was the first SMR to receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) design approval. Its core product is the NuScale Power Modul, a factory-built, light-water SMR that generates 77 MWe per module (scalable up to 924 MWe for a 12-module plant).

Backed by Fluor Corporation

Valuation vs Purpose:

If you notice many of themes are barely profitable but they did quite well. And this goes back to the main thesis.

If the company is essential to the national security doctrine and economic growth plan and you were to remove it from the supply chain would the plan begin to falter. The more important the role of the equity in this theme the more value is attributed to it. Some themes this premiums last longer than others.

This occurred with USAR, ALM, RGTI, INFQ. These companies are all losing money and diluting shareholder yet them moves have been quite extreme to the upside. And the thesis section goes over each of these and how I navigated each decision.

Diversified vs Centric

Why the Centric Portfolio now with half the weighting in Robotics vs the traditional Consumer non cyclical growth stocks in the Dow for example as a weighting:

Robotics will become such a dominant force in the economic and national security plan. In order to produce military items at scale and economic surplus the weight of this burden will shift to a robot. The robot works 24/7/365 and doesn’t need healthcare or a salary. They will phase out the human labor workers on a scale we will need to prepare for.

We are avoiding the consumer stocks because their buying power will erode immensely along with AI taking administrative jobs. Hence the centric nature of this portfolio at the time. The trend will also last far longer then many perceive

Many of the prior themes do not converge into both aspects of thesis. Robotics are unique as they are both an economic and notional security theme. The scale in terms of military applications is being underestimated.

The national security aspect is so massive but the added premium fort this is not truly known yet. It seems like it’s out of a movie honestly.

Continuous Efficient Markets

One of the more important topics to cover. Many people think the efficient market hypothesis that if good or bad news is known it is priced in immediately. But that’s naive to an extent.

I’ll explain: good news being priced into the market is a continuous event. If we find out on Monday we’re getting a rate cut In a month do you honestly believe it won’t get re priced in every single day until then or are do you honestly think we will just rally that Monday. In the long run the market do this based on rates and the growth theme at the time. When picking sectors with multi year growth stories it will be repriced over and over. Trying to outsmart this cycle of growth in a strong theme at the moment with intraday trading vs staying net long through the trend is quite often a mistake.

Coming to terms with the harshest reality for some. Markets were not designed to fail. They fail at times only to rebalance and grow back with twice the strength then it fell. Now before you say I’m wrong let’s look at an SPX chart from 1895 and truly ponder that.

The world is continually moving forward and the desire to see it fail on a continuous basis is historically not based on reality.

I wrote this article in honor of my Doberman Pinscher, Auclair and Rottweiler, Shane who were always there for me.

My next article will be about hedging. I really appreciate you reading this all.